Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,221$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,141.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,141.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(8.74 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $277$ on 2020-05-14

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,463$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,665.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,665.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,872$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,844.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,844.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,491$ on 2020-05-14

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $223,096$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,998.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(217,998.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,368$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,506.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,506.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,440$ on 2020-05-14

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,417,774$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,453,685.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,453,685.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85,898$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,680.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(87,680.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,085,462$ on 2020-05-14

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,440$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,578.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(245,578.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,693$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,369.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,369.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $199,704$ on 2020-05-14

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,582$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,571.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,571.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,529$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,590.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,590.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,082$ on 2020-05-14

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $174,478$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,693.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(167,693.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,884$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(883 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,858.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,858.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,294$ on 2020-05-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Luxembourg recovered 95%
New Zealand recovered 94%
Switzerland recovered 90%
Austria recovered 89%
Australia recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Taiwan* recovered 84%
Croatia recovered 78%
Germany recovered 78%
Andorra recovered 77%
Tunisia recovered 73%
Niger recovered 71%
Slovakia recovered 67%
Denmark recovered 64%
Israel recovered 61%
Cuba recovered 57%
Turkey recovered 55%
Japan recovered 53%
Lithuania recovered 50%
Czechia recovered 48%
Malaysia recovered 48%
Spain recovered 42%
Italy recovered 29%
Georgia recovered 26%
Serbia recovered 22%
Romania recovered 20%
Sri Lanka recovered 20%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 19%
Hungary recovered 14%
Jamaica recovered 10%
San Marino recovered 8%
Kazakhstan recovered 5%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,029$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(111.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,532.5}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,532.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,561.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,561.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-05-14

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,915$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(792 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,762.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,762.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100.2}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 27.3)}}\) (asimptote \(100.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $147$ on 2020-05-14

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,498$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(352 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,475.3}{1 + 10^{-0.099 (t - 26.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,475.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.0}{1 + 10^{-0.099 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-05-14

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,058$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,354.8}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(15,354.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $626$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(98.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{622.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(622.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,027$ on 2020-05-14